Here’s a prediction. Continental thrushes usually start arriving in the UK in late September. The big arrivals happen in October, but it’s Oct 4 now and there’s very few winter thrushes around, even on the east coast. The main reason seems to be the lack of suitable conditions for birds to push south and west. The latter half of September has seen northwest Europe under the influence of a series of Atlantic low-pressure systems, piling front after front over the UK across the north sea and into the low countries and Scandinavia. Hardly optimal conditions for migration. Tonight, the last front to pass over the UK the previous night will put a bank of rain across the Scandinavian coastline which should prevent the departure of any migrants across the north sea. However, tomorrow another low-pressure system passes over the UK and reaches the north sea in the evening and the forecast shows a weather window on the Scandiavian coastline with favourable winds for birds to depart. They will be heading into the weather front over the north sea. If this happens, there could be a significant fall of bedraggled and disoriented migrants on the east coat. Let’s see.
